Cardinals 1st Round Pick Preview
Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
Well, ladies and gentlemen, we have almost made it to draft day. As you guys are reading this, the draft is only days, if not hours, from starting, and with that, it is Tyler and Aidan’s job to get you ready for the Cardinals' first pick of the draft. While our other articles in this series have been more about players that intrigue us in certain ranges of the draft, this article will be more about who we perceive to be the players likely to go before the Cardinals' selection, the favorites, and some dark horses for pick 13. Also, at the end of the article, we will have the entire CardinalsProspects.com writing team give their predictions for who the Cardinals will select with this pick. With most draft fans having a decent idea of who these players are and what type of profiles they possess, this article will be more about why we have these players in these categories and less about explaining the entire profile like previous articles.
Likely to go before #13
Before we get into some names here, this category is not for the Roch Cholowsky or Grady Emersons of the world, as those guys have basically no chance at making it to the 13th overall pick in this year's draft. This is more about guys we expect to maybe go in the 8-12 range and, with a few unexpected picks, could fall into the Cardinals' hands, similar to how Liam Doyle was expected to go higher last season but fell to the Cardinals at 5.
OF Derek Curiel (LSU)
We have two different articles on Derek Curiel from both Kareem Haq and Taylor Crews on the site, so go check those out if you want more in-depth information on the Derek Curiel player profile, but boiled down to really simple terms, Derek Curiel is one of the top outfielders in the class, with his speed and athleticism allowing him to play a Gold Glove-caliber centerfield this year for LSU. Offensively, he hits the ball a lot with great contact rates while keeping exit velocities that rival most of the top prospects in this class. However, he currently hits the ball on the ground too often to generate any real in-game power to this point. If a team can get him to lift the ball more consistently, he will be one of the most well-rounded players in this year's draft class.
While Curiel started the college season more in the 10-20 range, which would make him a prime target of the Cardinals in this upcoming draft, a solid season where he showed great defense and some improvement in his raw power ability, along with the underperformance of some other draft prospects coming into the year that were higher than him, has led to Curiel creeping up boards into the 6-10 range, with a smaller chance of him making it to the 13th overall selection. If he does, however, fall to the Cardinals, they should be more than opportunistic to pick up the LSU outfielder.
SS Tyler Bell (Kentucky)
Tyler Bell has been one of the more polarizing prospects for us on the Cardinals Prospects team. Selected 66th overall by the Rays out of high school in the 2024 draft, Bell chose not to sign and bet on himself, a decision that appears to have paid off. Bell's projected draft range is one of the most questionable in the class, with evaluators placing him anywhere from No. 7 to No. 15 overall. Offensively, he possesses intriguing raw power and projects as a hitter capable of reaching double-digit home run totals. However, his biggest concern is swing-and-miss, particularly against breaking balls and even pitches in the strike zone. There's optimism that adjustments to his swing plane could help alleviate those issues, as his approach is otherwise sound and he rarely expands the zone. Defensively, Bell is a solid shortstop with enough athleticism and speed to project as an above-average runner, giving him a well-rounded profile if the hit tool continues to develop.
Bell's biggest concern outside of the swing-and-miss is the shoulder injury he endured during the college season. While there doesn't appear to be a significant long-term concern, clubs will undoubtedly do their homework during the pre-draft process. If teams are comfortable with the medicals, Bell has the upside to come off the board well before the Cardinals pick at No. 13. However, if questions surrounding the injury or his hit tool cause him to slide, he could become one of the more intriguing options available should St. Louis look to add an athletic, up-the-middle bat with significant upside.
Favorites
These are the players that, based on where they are ranked, along with rumors and reports from outlets such as Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel (ESPN), and others, are perceived to be the most likely picks for the Cardinals at the 13th pick in this year's draft. These aren’t always the pick, as we saw with Liam Doyle last year, who was in the category above, but I’m sure all these players listed below are in consideration for the team.
OF Trevor Condon (Etowah HS, GA)
One of the few top prospects we don’t have a write-up about on the site, Trevor Condon has had major draft helium since the early spring as his power started to catch up to what was a very promising 4-tool player coming into the spring. Condon is like a younger and faster but less polished version of the aforementioned Derek Curiel. He makes a lot of contact at the plate with a more untraditional stop-start swing. This made him more ground ball-prone on the circuit last summer, but this spring he has gotten into his legs more, and this has allowed him to both elevate the ball more, as well as use what was already plus bat speed to its full power potential. In the field, Condon is one of the fastest players in this draft, with scouts regularly giving him a 70 or even 80-grade run tool at times. This speed should allow Condon to man centerfield at a well-above-average level in the minors and potentially the MLB level. He has a solid arm, which should be more than fine in centerfield. A fiery athlete, many scouts have praised Condon’s competitiveness and willingness to put his body on the line during games.
Condon has firmly asserted himself as one of the better second-tier prep prospects in this year's draft, and based on reports mainly from Kiley McDaniel, was of some interest to the Cardinals early in the draft cycle. If that level of interest is still in play, that is hard to tell, but Condon’s overall skillset should intrigue any team in the 10-20 range of this year's draft. There is some obvious risk in any high school prospect's profile, but I feel that Condon’s speed and defense, along with his good contact tool, gives him a bit of a higher floor than most high school prospects, while still having plenty of upside to be an intriguing top prospect.
OF AJ Gracia (Virginia)
A college hitter at the 13th overall pick has been the favorite for a while, though as of recently, it seems that some of the high school bats are becoming more realistic and in play for the Cardinals at this pick. If the early trend holds, the Cardinals should have several solid college bats to pick from, likely including Virginia outfielder AJ Gracia.
Aidan Gray wrote about AJ Gracia preseason, and while a whole season is now in the books, much of the analysis remains the same with Gracia, who put up a very similar season at Virginia this year as he did at Duke in 2025, with a bit more slug and on-base this year compared to last season, which was to be expected. An extremely conservative hitter, Gracia only swung at 52.7% of pitches inside the strike zone this season, though he complements these very good contact skills with a 90.9% zone contact rate and only a 16.4% overall whiff rate. This very passive approach leads to more walks than strikeouts, but also makes some scouts concerned about his overall ability to do damage, especially considering his exit velocities are more middle of the road than a true plus tool, though he makes the most of his power by getting the ball to the pull side and in the air consistently. Not the best runner, Gracia fits much better in a corner outfield spot than he does center, where he takes good enough routes to profile as an average or maybe even slightly above-average fielder.
If the Cardinals end up going with a college bat at the 13th overall pick, I feel like Gracia fits the mold they have taken in the past with college hitters the best. Still, I could certainly see several other hitters in play, including Chris Hacopian and Ace Reese, two high-upside bats who performed just as well in the more competitive SEC. I feel that Gracia gives you the best defensive value out of that trio, which is why I am putting him in the favorites category.
OF/LHP Jared Grindlinger (Huntington Beach HS, CA)
Jared Grindlinger is one of the top prep prospects in this year's draft, with some evaluators viewing him as the next-best high school player behind Grady Emerson and Eric Booth Jr. Opinions are split on his long-term outlook, with some scouts preferring his projection on the mound and others believing more in the bat. On the mound, Grindlinger sits in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball, but his current profile is held back by below-average spin rates and average pitch shapes. Offensively, he consistently makes quality contact but presently shows limited power. However, some evaluators believe there's still untapped power projection as he continues to mature physically. Defensively, there are questions about whether he'll remain up the middle in center field. He possesses average speed and average instincts, leading some scouts to project an eventual move to a corner outfield spot.
There have been reported connections between Jared Grindlinger and the Cardinals. While it appears more likely they'll target a bat at pick 13, selecting a pitcher shouldn't be ruled out entirely. If the players the Cardinals have at the top of their board are off the board by the time they pick, Grindlinger could become a logical pivot as one of the premier high school players in the class. That said, there's no guarantee he'll still be available, as several teams picking ahead of St. Louis are also believed to be high on him.
Dark Horses
These are the players who we think could be in play for the Cardinals at the 13th overall pick, but that we don’t perceive to be the frontrunners unless a few names ahead of them on the board get selected sooner, or the Cardinals have interest in these players that we didn’t know about.
INF Chris Hacopian (Texas A&M)
Of any player on this list, Hacopian has the widest range of any of them, in my opinion. His hitting ability is undeniable, as he is one of the best pure hitters in this entire draft class, but questions about his defense and true power potential have plenty of evaluators split on where he should go in the draft.
First, let's talk about Hacopian’s hitting ability. Hacopian balances very good contact skills with plenty of raw power, allowing him to be one of the most complete hitters amongst the college class. His average exit velocity, 90th percentile exit velocity, and max exit velocity rank in the 88th percentile or higher amongst his college peers; he pairs this with a 91.9% in-zone contact percentage and a 13.6% whiff rate, both of which are in the top 10 percent of college batters. Hacopian, similar to Gracia, is conservative at the plate with a 58.7% zone swing rate, and he can get ground ball-prone at times, making some scouts question his true power ceiling, though the hit tool is good enough to look past those concerns a bit. The real question marks with Hacopian come on the non-offensive tools; he is a below-average runner who doesn’t move that well for a middle infielder. This would mean a logical move to 3B, where Hacopian played his freshman year at Maryland. The problem is that many scouts doubt he has the arm strength to play that position full-time; a move to the outfield seems possible, though being a below-average runner would limit his upside on the grass as well. He likely ends up as a below-average fielder no matter where he is placed, making the bat all the more important.
I could see Hacopian’s pure hitting ability intriguing the Cardinals with the 13th overall pick, even with below-average grades on the rest of his tool set. If the Cardinals do end up picking Hacopian, I’d imagine they would try to work with him to build up some arm strength to play 3B. The lack of an up-the-middle position is why we have Hacopian in the dark horse category and not the favorites or even likely to go before 13 category, even though there have been some rumors of him going before the Cardinals to a team like the Angels.
3B Ace Reese (Mississippi State)
Ace Reese has one of the more intriguing offensive profiles in this year's class, but the question is whether the bat alone provides enough value to justify selecting him at number 13. Reese put together an outstanding season for the Bulldogs, showcasing not only plus raw power but also the ability to translate it into games, launching 24 home runs. While there is some swing-and-miss in his profile, his ability to consistently drive the baseball – particularly to the pull side and in the air – gives him legitimate middle-of-the-order offensive upside. He has also shown the ability to handle both left- and right-handed pitching, further boosting confidence in the bat. The concerns come everywhere else. Reese offers limited value defensively and on the bases, making his offensive production the key driver of his profile. There's, of course, some optimism he could develop into a more reliable defender with additional reps, but that remains more projection than expectation. Ultimately, teams drafting Reese are betting that his impact bat will outweigh the limitations in the rest of his game.
Reese has the offensive upside to hear his name called somewhere in the 13-20 range, but the question is whether teams are willing to bet on the bat that early. If they believe the power will carry the profile, he'll be an easy first-round selection. If not, the lack of defensive and baserunning value could cause him to slide further than his offensive production alone would suggest.
RHP Cade Townsend (Ole Miss)
Outside of Jackson Flora – who is widely expected to come off the board in the top 10 – the rest of the pitching class is generally viewed as one large tier. As a result, many of them could realistically be selected anywhere from pick 11 through the Competitive Balance Round A, with some even slipping into the second round. Cade Townsend fits squarely into that group, but he offers one of the safer and more complete profiles among his peers. He took a significant step forward this season, showing improved stuff and better control. He works with a fastball that sits in the mid-90s with solid shape, while his primary secondary pitches – a cutter and a sweeper – generated excellent chase and whiff rates. He'll also mix in a curveball and splitter to give hitters a different look, giving him a deep five-pitch arsenal. Combined with his ability to generate quality spin, Townsend offers one of the more polished pitching profiles in this draft class.
Townsend fits the type of pitcher the Cardinals could certainly use: a polished starter with a deep arsenal, the ability to throw strikes, and the traits to remain in a rotation long term. While there haven't been any reported connections between Townsend and St. Louis leading up to the draft, he would make plenty of sense if the Cardinals decide the top bats are off the board and opt to address their pitching pipeline with one of the safer arms in this year's class.
Other Dark Horse Candidates: C- Ryder Helfrick (Arkansas), SS- Justin Lebron (Alabama), LHP- Mason Edwards (USC), LHP- Hunter Dietz (Arkansas)
Predictions
Last year, I predicted that Jamie Arnold would be selected with the 5th pick by the St. Louis Cardinals, while I expected Liam Doyle to go second overall to the Angels. Well, the Angels selected Tyler Bremner, allowing Liam Doyle to fall to the 5th overall pick, where the Cardinals selected him, with Jamie Arnold falling to the A’s at 11. With CardinalsProspects.com adding a group of additional writers since the last draft, we are going to do a writer-by-writer prediction instead of a mini mock draft this year.
Tyler’s prediction: SS Tyler Bell (Kentucky)
Aidan’s prediction: OF Trevor Condon (Etowah)
Taylor’s prediction: OF Derek Curiel (LSU)
Max’s prediction: LHP Hunter Dietz (Arkansas)
HenceSZN’s prediction: RHP Cade Townsend (Ole Miss)
Kareem’s prediction: TBD
