Ceiling vs. Certainty: The Cardinals’ Pick 13 Dilemma
Credit: The Boston Globe
The MLB Draft is only a few months away, and the St. Louis Cardinals have a big choice when it comes to pick 13. Will they swing for the fences or settle for a solid single? I will break down two schools of thought and two prospects who personify the debate.
The case for a potential ace
Brody Bumila is a special talent. He is a left-handed pitcher coming out of high school already throwing 101 MPH. However, it’s not just the velocity that’s enticing. He comes from a low-5s release height, spinning his fastball as high as 2800 RPMs. Many scouts consider this a current 80-grade pitch. This velocity and these release traits lead to something that can’t be taught, so why is he not a slam dunk pick at 13?
There are a couple reasons. Bumila has already had internal brace surgery in his young career. However, he has put any concerns to rest with an unhittable spring so far. Beyond that, while showing a potential plus changeup, his breaking pitches will need to be retooled in pro ball. This could be less of a concern for the Cardinals, who are currently seeing positive results from their 2025 first-round selection, Liam Doyle, who has added a new effective breaker. Now more than ever, teams are able to manipulate the shapes and grips associated with breaking balls, but fastball characteristics are much harder to modify once a player reaches pro ball. This is why I would put a very high premium on the fastball. A fastball is almost always a pitcher’s most utilized pitch, so why not make it one of your best pitches? Overall, the amount of development and risk with drafting a high schooler could lead to a drop in the draft for Bumila, but the talent is never in question.
Another factor to consider is the implications if he does not reach his potential. A high school pitcher is a long-term investment who will take years to make it to the majors. If they stall or fail to live up to expectations, these are the type of picks that get general managers fired. By contrast, if you look for fast-moving college players, you have more of a margin for error. The Cardinals often lean towards college players with early picks, and if one fails or is delayed, next year’s selection can make up for that with this strategy. It’s not a sexy way to look at drafting, but a very realistic view one must have. That being said, what player fits this profile that the Cardinals tend to seek?
Staying safe
The easy choice for me is LSU outfielder Derek Curiel. If you want safety and certainty, there may be no better pick in the 2026 draft. So what exactly does Curiel provide that lends to the thought of a safe, quick-moving college bat? The easy answer is: a lot. Curiel is a pure hitter, putting up exceptional contact rates both in and out of the zone. Likewise, he limits chase and puts up very strong average and 90th-percentile exit velocities. He is currently listed at 6’3”, 185 pounds, and there is room for projection as well. Really, his biggest current limiting factor is his inability to pull the ball in the air. A lot of scouts will tell you a hit tool counts double, and I am also of the belief that he could begin to pull the ball more.
Curiel is not just an offense-only player. He has put up exceptional run times this season along with playing a very good center field. Early in the season, I saw him missing balls, and watching film last year, there were poor plays even in corner spots. However, he has taken leaps and bounds this year and has been exceptional in center field.
Curiel can clearly affect the game with his bat, glove, and legs, but I want to also touch on his baseball IQ. I was watching one of his games recently, and he was 3-for-4 with a couple doubles, but one play in particular stood out to me. Curiel was following a teammate looking to score a run. His teammate was unsure if he touched home plate on a play at the plate, and Curiel made sure that his teammate touched the plate before touching it himself and earning an extra run for the team. It would have been very easy for him to just touch the plate, but he ensured the team would not get an out if he did so. It’s a small play, but I thought his baseball IQ should be highlighted.
The draft is only a couple months away, and there are so many ways the Cardinals could approach it. There are reports out there that the Cardinals are seeking to stack position players, per Overslot Baseball. With this info, and the Cardinals’ tendencies, I think Curiel is a realistic option at 13. Are there 20+ other options? Sure. Would I personally rather them take a shot on the upside of Bumila? Yes. However, Curiel is a player who will hit, run, play defense, and stick in center field. An up-the-middle player is always a premium, and though the power is not there currently, there may be more in the tank. As we get closer to the draft and more connections are made to the Cardinals, I will try to deep dive into more players as well, but for now, if I had to mock a player to the Cardinals at 13, it is easily Derek Curiel.
