5 Predictions for the Cardinals’ Pitching Prospects in 2026
Credit: Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
As we have done with the first three articles in this series, let’s look back at my 2025 pitching predictions and see how they fared. Spoiler: looking back, these are pretty rough.
Prediction #1: Four members of the Memphis Redbirds’ Opening Day rotation will also make a start in St. Louis.
This prediction came nowhere close to coming true, as most of the pitchers I had slotted into the Memphis rotation finished the season on the injured list. Cooper Hjerpe, Sem Robberse, Tekoah Roby, Tink Hence, and Ian Bedell all spent significant time on the IL, and regression from Quinn Mathews and Max Rajcic made this one a rough outcome.
Prediction #2: Luis Gastelum makes it to Triple-A during the 2025 season.
Luis Gastelum did not make it to Triple-A this past season, as the Cardinals decided to keep him in Springfield for the championship run despite numbers down the stretch that were strong enough to warrant a promotion to Memphis.
Prediction #3: Gordon Graceffo finds his way into a late-inning relief role with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025.
While Graceffo showed flashes of good stuff in his first season in relief between Triple-A and the majors, the overall MLB sample was rough, as he posted a 6.28 ERA in 43 innings.
Prediction #4: Brian Holiday wins the Cardinals’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year award.
Brian Holiday was one of the many Cardinals minor league pitchers to go down with an injury during spring training last year, and he did not throw a single affiliated inning in 2025 after undergoing elbow surgery.
Prediction #5: Tink Hence throws more than 100 innings this year.
I was optimistic that Tink Hence was finally going to turn it around in 2025, but it ended up being another season marred by injuries from the start. A rib injury kept him out until late May, and then a second injury in early July limited him to just 21.1 innings on the season. The Cardinals also appear to be moving Hence into a relief role this season.
That is rough: zero for five on last year’s predictions. The only one I can really argue had a chance of coming true was the Gastelum prediction, as the rest were well off the mark. The good thing, I guess, is that it sets a low bar for this year’s predictions, so let’s get into them.
Prediction #1: Tanner Franklin makes it to Double-A and wins the Cardinals’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year award
I’m going a bit bolder on the pitching side here with my Minor League Pitcher of the Year prediction. Most people probably thought this was going to be a Liam Doyle prediction, but I’m going with his Tennessee teammate Tanner Franklin, who has electric stuff as well.
Franklin features an upper-90s fastball with good movement, which makes it one of the best pitches in the entire Cardinals system. After that is where he is still developing, with a low-90s cutter and a mid-80s slider serving as his two primary offspeed offerings, though he relied mostly on the cutter in college. The development of a more sweeping slider and a changeup will be key to him breaking out this season.
I’ll also be interested to see how the Cardinals handle Franklin’s innings this season, as he has never thrown more than 38.2 innings in a year. If Franklin is on an innings limit, that could make it harder for him to win the Pitcher of the Year award.
Prediction #2: Luis Gastelum makes it to the majors and averages at least a strikeout per inning
I have talked at length about Luis Gastelum and how good that changeup is, so I’ll leave you to read my other articles if you want the full analysis. Still, Gastelum has picked up some serious momentum this spring in camp, lasting until the final week before being sent back to minor league camp, which is a good sign that the organization believes he is relatively close to making an impact at the major league level.
Add in manager Oli Marmol complimenting Gastelum during a call with Cardinals bloggers, calling the changeup “a real pitch, and hitters know it,” and I think there is a good chance we see Gastelum at some point in the middle of the season. I also think he will continue to baffle hitters with that changeup
Prediction #3: Brycen Mautz makes multiple starts at the MLB level
The reigning Cardinals Pitcher of the Year has had an up-and-down spring, but he has flashed the talent that makes him an intriguing arm for the Cardinals’ future. While rumors early in camp suggested that Mautz had a chance to make the team out of camp as a left-handed reliever, the Cardinals ultimately sent him back to minor league camp, where he is positioned to work as a starter at Memphis this season.
Mautz has had a really solid spring from a swing-and-miss standpoint, generating a 38.6% whiff rate and a 34.8% chase rate in 6.1 innings, though command has been a struggle. While Mautz has a few people in front of him on the depth chart as a starter, the fact that he is already on the 40-man roster makes me think we could see him in St. Louis by August or September, especially if the Cardinals need starters to cover innings at the end of the year and pitchers like Kyle Leahy, Richard Fitts, or Hunter Dobbins hit innings limits.
Prediction #4: Branneli Franco makes it to Palm Beach and posts a sub-4.00 ERA.
This is probably my boldest prediction on the list, as Branneli Franco has not pitched beyond the DSL. Still, I have confidence that he could be a fast riser this year given his pitch mix and velocity.
Now healthy, Franco has a solid 6-foot-3, 187-pound frame, and that frame helps him sit 95-plus mph consistently with his fastball, which is why he was the Cardinals’ top international signee in 2024. He also features a high-80s to low-90s slider and a changeup that sits in the high 80s. Franco also significantly cut his walk rate from his first DSL season to his second, dropping it from 13.3% to 7.1%.
That combination of velocity and improving command gives me confidence that Franco has the tools to reach Palm Beach rather quickly, and I would not be surprised if he posts solid numbers once he gets there thanks to the fastball-slider combination. He is an exciting young pitcher to watch this season.
Prediction #5: The Cardinals’ system will rank top 10 in both Stuff+ and ERA across all of MLB in 2026
The first part of this prediction is not as bold as the second. As I explored in a recent article in October, the Cardinals jumped from last place in Minor League Stuff+ in 2024 to 14th in 2025 under new pitching director Matt Pierpont, which was the largest jump in the majors by a wide margin.
Because of that, I do not think it is crazy to believe that, with all of the new pitching additions via trade and a full offseason for Pierpont and his staff to work with the organization’s pitchers, the Cardinals could take another step and move into the top 10 in 2026.
The bolder part of this prediction is the top-10 ERA across all MLB organizations. Only Springfield, which ranked first in the Texas League in ERA, finished in the top half of its league in that category. Peoria finished dead last in the Midwest League, and Palm Beach finished third from the bottom in the Florida State League.
It will take a significant jump for the system-wide ERA to climb into the top 10, but I believe it is possible given the talent the Cardinals have brought in, both in terms of players and coaches. I’m excited to see what the next step looks like for the system in 2026.
