5 Predictions for the Cardinals’ Position Player Prospects in 2026
Credit: Baseball America
As we have done with the first two articles in this series, let’s look back at my 2025 position player predictions and see how they fared.
Prediction #1: JJ Wetherholt reaches Triple-A on his way to winning the Cardinals’ Minor League Player of the Year award.
It’s safe to say this was a very good prediction, as JJ not only made his way to Triple-A, but also won the Cardinals’ Minor League Player of the Year award and appears to be a shoo-in for the Cardinals’ Opening Day second base spot.
Prediction #2: Jimmy Crooks makes his MLB debut.
Jimmy Crooks did, in fact, make his MLB debut at the end of August.
Prediction #3: Joshua Baez leads the Cardinals’ minor league system in home runs.
Joshua Baez did indeed hit the most home runs in the system with 20, tying Rainiel Rodriguez.
Prediction #4: Bryan Torres wins the Triple-A batting title.
Bryan Torres came very close, finishing third in the International League with a .328 average behind Nick Sloak and Justin Crawford. However, Torres did lead the International League in OBP at .441.
Prediction #5: Matt Koperniak posts 1.5 WAR or more at the MLB level in 2025.
This one was an obvious miss. Coming off a very strong 2024, Koperniak had a disappointing 2025, which led to his removal from the 40-man roster this winter.
So technically, I went three for five with my predictions, though the Bryan Torres prediction was very close and easily could have happened. With that in mind, I have five more predictions for 2026 that I think have a good chance of coming true. Under this new development team, especially on the hitting side, I believe some breakouts are coming.
Prediction #1: Rainiel Rodriguez reaches Double-A on his way to winning Cardinals Minor League Player of the Year
I made a similar prediction with JJ last year, and it worked out as planned. I’ll say the same this year. I don’t think many people will disagree with this one.
Rainiel was the best hitter in the Cardinals system by wRC+ last year, posting a 162 wRC+ that ranked among the top 10 in all of minor league baseball across three levels. While I don’t expect Rainiel to rise three levels again next season, I do think a midseason promotion to Springfield is possible if he opens the year at High-A Peoria, especially considering he will still be in his age-19 season. If he does that while hitting 20-plus home runs again, he could very well put himself in position to win the Cardinals Minor League Player of the Year award.
If that happens, “The Hulk” will likely find himself as a top-15 prospect in the game.
Prediction #2: Yairo Padilla steals 50-plus bases
While Rainiel Rodriguez was the breakout hitter during the 2025 season, his fellow 2024 DSL All-Star, Yairo Padilla, also put together a respectable campaign at the complex. A late injury caused him to miss some time, including what could have been a Palm Beach debut.
A fully healthy Padilla is likely to open the year at Palm Beach, where I’m excited to see how his speed plays over a full season. Between 2024 and 2025, Padilla played 73 games between the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex League and stole 46 bases in those 73 games. While his efficiency will likely decline somewhat, the combination of a full season’s worth of opportunities, plus bat-to-ball skills, and a solid approach gives me confidence that he has a real chance to get to around 50 stolen bases.
Prediction #3: Tai Peete hits 20-plus home runs in a breakout season
I wanted to include a prediction for one of the Cardinals’ newly acquired players, so I landed on this one. Last season, it was Joshua Baez, whom I predicted would lead the system in home runs during a breakout year. While I’m not predicting that Peete will lead the system in homers — that prediction belongs to Rainiel Rodriguez — I am predicting that Peete will hit 20-plus after a season in which he hit 19.
I don’t actually think the 20-plus home runs part is all that bold. The breakout element is the bolder call, as Peete posted just a 79 wRC+ last season at High-A in the Mariners’ system. Still, similar to my thinking on Baez last year, I’m putting my trust in the Cardinals’ new development staff to help Peete cut down the strikeout rate enough and make enough contact to become a quality hitter.
“Breakout” is subjective, but for me, a wRC+ of at least 110 would qualify.
Prediction #4: JJ Wetherholt wins NL Rookie of the Year
This is a popular opinion among Cardinals fans, and for good reason. JJ Wetherholt is one of the best pure hitting prospects in all of minor league baseball, which gives him both a high floor and a strong chance to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award.
While there may be other exciting prospects in the mix, such as Konnor Griffin, Sal Stewart, and Nolan McLean, JJ’s ability to control the strike zone — with low chase and whiff rates and high walk rates — along with his ability to do damage on pitches in the zone, makes me confident he can produce quickly at the MLB level.
Another advantage JJ has in the Rookie of the Year race is that he appears likely to begin the season on the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, which should give him more runway than prospects who do not debut until later in the year. Overall, I think JJ’s profile is built for early success in the majors, and that gives me confidence in his chances of winning the award.
Prediction #5: A player who came stateside this spring will post a 110 or higher wRC+ at Palm Beach this season
This prediction is partly a numbers game, as the Cardinals have eight position players coming stateside this spring from the Dominican Summer League. The top candidate to reach Palm Beach and have a breakout season is infielder Sebastian Dos Santos, who posted a 158 wRC+, ranking second among all Cardinals prospects this past season.
My personal breakout pick would be fellow infielder Miguel Hernandez, who posted a 124 wRC+ last season and has had a very solid spring on the backfields so far. Royelny Strop and Kenly Hunter, the top signees by signing bonus from the 2025 class, are also coming stateside. Hunter’s contact ability could lead to a high OBP and plenty of stolen bases, which could help propel him to Palm Beach, while Strop really elevated his performance toward the end of the DSL season and into instructs.
Yaxson Lucena, Cristofer Lebron, and Juan Rujano all posted wRC+ marks above 120 and also have a chance to reach Palm Beach. Ultimately, I’m betting on a strong DSL class producing enough this season for this prediction to come true.
