Brendan Donovan Is the Cardinals’ Biggest Trade Chip — Will St. Louis Cash In?
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The St. Louis Cardinals have done the unthinkable; they have fully embraced a rebuild. After years of mediocrity and false contention, a new front office looks to build sustained success by tearing the team down. That decision puts one name at the front and center of the trade market: Brendan Donovan.
Why are teams interested?
Brendan Donovan, coming off his first All-Star appearance, is a really good player. However, he is not an elite player like other trade market candidate Ketel Marte. He does appeal to teams in other ways.
Donovan is the model of consistency. He has a very high floor and is almost a lock for a near 3 WAR, and a 119 wRC+ season. His ceiling may not be as high as others, but he does have room for a little extra, given a fully healthy season, which at times has eluded him.
He is cost-controlled. The addition of Donovan allows teams to use salary on additional players and resources due to a projected salary of only 5 million.
He has 2 years of team control. This is kind of a sweet spot for teams; this allows multiple years of control while also not locking themselves into an asset long term.
Positional versatility. I will be the first to say his defensive ability can be overstated because of his Gold Glove background. However, it is incredibly beneficial to have a player who can move anywhere on the diamond. He has had most of his defensive success at 3rd and 2nd base, but has shown the ability to play outfield and even short in a pinch. This versatility can be extremely appealing to teams that want to allow rest to their players, or development opportunities to young players.
Finally, Donovan brings intangibles in the form of his work ethic and leadership to a team. Where some players have clubhouse concerns, Donovan is a clubhouse glue type player.
What teams are interested?
Over half the league is interested, but let’s break this down by the most reasonable candidates and give a percentage chance that they make a move for Donovan.
Seattle Mariners (50%) - I think the highest probability of a trade belongs to the Seattle Mariners. There have been credible reports from multiple sources detailing interest between both sides. However, there seems to be a standstill between the two teams, with recent reporting indicating the Mariners may be willing to include switch pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje in a deal. Donovan is a great fit for the Mariners as he can serve a utility role and allow Cole Young and Colt Emerson freedom to develop, while also giving the Mariners financial flexibility to sign an additional bat, who would make them an early World Series favorite. The Mariners farm system should be appealing to the Cardinals, with many well-regarded prospects. My only concern for a deal is a difference in prospect and player evaluations between the two teams. For years, they have seemed like a perfect trade partner, with no significant deals transpiring.
San Francisco Giants (25%) - The Giants have also been listed as a team that has shown continued interest in Donovan, and are a team with no real solution at second base. Ultimately, I don’t see the Giants farm system as a great fit for St. Louis, who seem to be in the business of acquiring pitching.
Kansas City Royals (10%) - The Royals would be an unconventional trade partner here. They have made some great moves this offseason and look to be a playoff contender, but the path to trading for Donovan is not as clear as others. The Royals are looking to move Kris Bubic, who would not appeal to the Cardinals rebuild window. However, if they could get a third team involved, they could use them to funnel prospects to the Cardinals. The St. Louis Post Dispatch has highlighted the Royals interest in Donovan, so its impossible to fully rule them out.
Boston Red Sox (5%) - I only have the Red Sox here because there has been reported interest, and typically, when teams work together well, you see more trades happen. Chaim Bloom has already made two trades with Boston this offseason. Could a third one happen? Looking at the Red Sox offensive struggles last season, they should be aiming for an even greater offensive upside player than Donovan, instead of the Swiss Army Knife type of player he would provide them.
Will Brendan Donovan be traded?
Realistically, yes, he will be traded. If I had to give odds, I would say 60/40 that he is moved before opening day. If I had to go by my gut feeling, I think Donovan opens up the season as a St. Louis Cardinal. It has been stated time and time again that Donovan would not be moved unless the return was very appealing. I think if such offers were available, he would already be gone. This brings me to think that he may become a trade deadline candidate, where the Cardinals could hope to find a team in need, where there are limited other options available. Currently, the market is saturated with other infielders on the trade market and in free agency. This could always change, as all it takes is one call, one team that is desperate to upgrade, but my gut tells me Chaim does not want to look weak and cave to other teams in his first big move with the Cardinals.
Staff Predictions: Will Donovan be traded this offseason?
Taylor Crews - No, moved at the trade deadline to the Seattle Mariners
Aidan Gray - Yes, Cleveland Guardians
Tyler Gettinger - Yes, Seattle Mariners
Kareem Haq - Yes, Seattle Mariners
Max Quirk - Yes, Tampa Bay Rays
