Predicting Who the Cardinals Will Protect from the Rule 5 Draft
Credit: PJ Maigi/Springfield Cardinals
One of the key milestones of the MLB offseason is the Rule 5 Draft, which will take place on December 10 at 1 p.m. CST. Before then, teams must add Rule 5-eligible players to the 40-man roster by the November 18 deadline to protect them from being selected.
In recent years, the Cardinals have had a relatively small group of players needing protection, largely due to limited farm system development. That has changed this year. The Cardinals have already protected Nathan Church, Jimmy Crooks, and César Prieto by adding them to the 40-man roster late in the season to give them some major league experience. However, four to six additional players could still be protected by the deadline.
In this article, I’ll break down the potential additions into tiers based on what I think will happen, not necessarily what I want to happen.
Locks
C Leonardo Bernal (AA)
Bernal is widely regarded as a top-five prospect in the Cardinals system and ranks No. 92 overall according to MLB Pipeline. He is almost certain to be protected, which is absolutely the right move. Bernal offers elite defensive potential behind the plate, recently winning a Gold Glove for all of the minors, and has been one of the system’s most consistent young hitters. He has posted a wRC+ above 100 at every full-season level while being significantly younger than his competition.
With Bernal’s addition, the Cardinals now have five catchers on the 40-man roster. That likely means Yohel Pozo will be non-tendered before the deadline, as carrying five catchers on the roster would be impractical.
OF Joshua Baez (AA)
If you had asked me back in February who the Cardinals might protect this winter, Baez would not have made the list. Yet after a breakout 2025 season in which he hit .287 with an .884 OPS, 20 home runs, and 54 stolen bases, he has become a lock. Given the organization’s lack of productive outfielders and power hitters, the Cardinals will almost certainly protect Baez as they continue to develop him into the cornerstone outfielder they have sought for years.
LHP Cooper Hjerpe (AA)
Hjerpe was the toughest player to place between the “lock” and “probable” tiers, but the Cardinals cannot risk losing one of their best arms to the Rule 5 Draft. While he is recovering from Tommy John surgery and isn’t expected to return until mid-2026, his upside is too high to ignore. When healthy, Hjerpe has been dominant, posting a 3.38 ERA in 93.1 minor league innings with 127 strikeouts. He projects as either a mid-rotation starter or a high-leverage reliever in the future, making this an easy decision.
Probables
LHP Brycen Mautz (AA)
If Joshua Baez was the breakout hitter of 2025, Brycen Mautz was the breakout pitcher. He finished the season with a 2.98 ERA across 114.1 innings and struck out 134 batters. Mautz added several miles per hour to his fastball and refined his changeup, allowing him to handle right-handed hitters much better than in previous seasons.
Mautz recently appeared on the Birds on the Farm podcast, where he credited Matt Pierpont and the organization’s new individualized development plans as key reasons for his success.
1B/3B Blaze Jordan (AAA)
The Cardinals traded Steven Matz for Blaze Jordan at this year’s deadline, and while Jordan struggled in Memphis, hitting .198/.242/.366, it doesn’t seem likely the Cardinals will risk losing a player they just acquired.
Personally, I disagree with adding him to the 40-man roster right now, as Jordan struggled both in the box score and in quality-of-contact metrics. Giving him another year to develop without the pressure of a 40-man spot could be beneficial for his long-term growth.
Longshots
RHP Darlin Saladin (AA)
A month ago, Saladin would not have been on this list, but his performance in the Arizona Fall League has forced a re-evaluation. In 11 innings, he posted a 0.82 ERA with 17 strikeouts while using the MLB ball, earning a spot as an AFL All-Star.
Saladin struggled early in the year but has impressed in the Arizona Fall League with a revamped arsenal that features a new changeup, which has emerged as a standout pitch. Because he hasn’t pitched above High-A, it’s unlikely another team would take a chance on him, making it equally improbable that the Cardinals will use a 40-man roster spot to protect him
LHP Pete Hansen (AA)
Hansen was a key part of Springfield’s Texas League title run, posting a 3.93 ERA in 137.1 innings with 123 strikeouts. He has a solid mix of breaking pitches but lacks an above-average fastball, which limits his ceiling to that of a back-end starter.
At 25 years old, Hansen is an older prospect, and the lack of a strong fastball makes him a risky selection for other teams. It’s still unlikely the Cardinals will protect him, but if there’s a bold prediction to be made from this group, Hansen would be the one most likely to get the nod.
RHP Max Rajcic (AAA)
Rajcic, like Hansen, has a solid changeup and curveball but lacks a quality fastball. That weakness showed at Triple-A, where he recorded a 6.40 ERA in 45 innings with only 28 strikeouts. He’s still just 24 but has struggled with command, walking 4.1 per nine innings in 2025.
Given those issues, the Cardinals can likely leave him unprotected without much risk of losing him to another team.
Final Prediction
Leonardo Bernal — Protected
Joshua Baez — Protected
Cooper Hjerpe — Protected
Brycen Mautz — Protected
Blaze Jordan — Protected
Darlin Saladin — Not Protected
Pete Hansen — Protected
Max Rajcic — Not Protected
The Cardinals’ improved depth and talent in their minor league system have made this year’s Rule 5 decisions far more difficult than in years past. Regardless of who ultimately gets protected, it’s clear that player development within the organization is trending in the right direction.
