Are the Cardinals Really MLB’s Top Farm System?
Credit: PJ Maigi/Springfield Cardinals
When Zane Mills recorded the final out in Amarillo to clinch the Springfield Cardinals’ second-ever Texas League title, it marked the culmination of exponential growth for the Cardinals’ farm system in 2025 under Rob Cerfolio, Larry Day, and the Cardinals’ development staff. The organization rose from a farm system that was middle of the pack at best to one that is now considered above average, according to most publications. The ranking that caught most Cardinals fans’ attention came from FanGraphs, which listed the Cardinals as having the number-one farm system in all of baseball. I was personally surprised by this ranking, so in this article, I’ll take a closer look to determine whether the Cardinals truly have the top farm system in baseball. Credit goes to Baseball America for the majority of the data presented here.
Hitting
This article takes a holistic look at the Cardinals’ farm system, not just the top prospects. With that in mind, the Cardinals continue to be one of the best organizations in baseball when it comes to making contact. They ranked third in 2024 in contact percentage, and that success carried into 2025, where they ranked fourth. This isn’t surprising, as contact-oriented hitters have long been a profile the Cardinals target. Players such as Bryan Torres, Nathan Church, César Prieto, and Blaze Jordan rank among the best contact hitters in all of minor league baseball.
However, the Cardinals did take a step back in 2025 in terms of power. They ranked 19th in 90th-percentile exit velocity, down from 14th in 2024. That result is understandable, considering the team parted ways with several of its top power hitters this past year, including Luken Baker, RJ Yeager, and Chandler Redmond. Power remains a weakness across all levels of the organization, from rookie ball to the majors. A key factor contributing to that deficiency is poor swing decisions. The Cardinals ranked 27th in swing decisions in 2025, which was a slight improvement from 29th in 2024.
Fortunately, the Cardinals have recognized this issue and are addressing it in recent drafts by targeting players with elite plate discipline, such as JJ Wetherholt, Ryan Mitchell, Matthew Miura, Ryan Weingartner, and Cameron Nickens. If this trend continues, the Cardinals should improve in swing-decision metrics. With that improvement, their power numbers should also rise, as better in-zone contact tends to lead to more barreled balls.
These statistics do not fully reflect the progress the Cardinals have made with specific player types. Players who possess high hard-hit potential but have had swing-and-miss concerns, such as Joshua Báez, Deniel Ortiz, and Zach Levenson, all showed major improvement in 2025. Overall, Baseball America ranked the Cardinals as the 14th-best hitting organization in baseball, which feels accurate given their excellent contact ability but inconsistent power production.
The Cardinals still have room to grow offensively, particularly in power and swing decisions. However, their 2025 draft trends and development success with power-driven players give reason for optimism. If they continue in this direction, the organization could become a top-10 hitting system in the near future.
Pitching
If you ask any Cardinals fan what has plagued the team most since the start of the decade, the answer would likely be pitching. For years, outdated philosophies emphasized ground balls and weak contact over raw stuff and strikeout ability. Chaim Bloom addressed this problem immediately after the 2024 season by hiring former Seattle Mariners pitching coordinator Matt Pierpont to lead a new direction. The results were clear in 2025.
The most obvious sign of progress came in the metric Stuff+, which measures pitch quality based purely on physical characteristics. In 2024, the Cardinals ranked last in baseball with a 99.4 Stuff+. By 2025, they had climbed to 14th with a 100, a 16-spot improvement that was the largest in Major League Baseball. This progress was driven primarily by better fastballs. The Cardinals rose from 15th in fastball Stuff+ (101.0) to 6th (101.8).
This leap came from two main factors: offseason improvements by existing pitchers and the addition of elite fastballs through the draft and trade deadline. Leonel Sequera, Brycen Mautz, and Ixan Henderson all added velocity during the offseason. Both Mautz and Henderson went on to dominate in Double-A, with Henderson earning Texas League Pitcher of the Year honors. The Cardinals also drafted pitchers with plus fastballs, including Liam Doyle and Tanner Franklin, and acquired Nate Dohm and Frank Elissalt at the trade deadline, both of whom feature some of the best fastballs in the minors.
One area to watch in 2026 is fastball usage. The Cardinals ranked only 21st in 2025 at 50 percent. Given their recent influx of high-quality fastballs, it would not be surprising to see that number rise above 53 percent, which would place them in the top half of the league.
The one area of concern for the pitching staff in 2025 was breaking balls. The Cardinals ranked 24th in slider Stuff+ and 23rd in sweeper Stuff+, though both marks represented slight improvement from 2024. The 2025 draft brought in several arms with promising sliders and sweepers, including Ethan Young, Ty Van Dyke, Payton Graham, and Liam Best, so there is potential for progress in that area.
On the other hand, the Cardinals have long excelled with changeups and splitters, and that continued in 2025. They ranked fourth in whiff rate at 38.1 percent, and with pitchers like Luis Gastelum, Quinn Mathews, Braden Davis, Mason Molina, and newly drafted Cade Crossland, that success should continue. Each of those pitchers features a 60-grade or better changeup. Their 12 percent usage rate for changeups and splitters ranked in the top 10 in baseball, and that figure should remain steady given the pitch’s consistent effectiveness.
Overall, the Cardinals took a massive step forward in pitching development under Matt Pierpont in 2025. It will be interesting to see whether they continue to emphasize the north-south approach built around fastballs and changeups or begin to diversify with more east-west profiles to balance the system.
Conclusion
So, are the Cardinals the best farm system in baseball? After analyzing the data, I can confidently say not yet, but they are getting close. The strides made in pitching development have been remarkable, and while the hitting metrics have not improved as dramatically, there is clear progress in power development and approach at the plate.
Overall, I would rank the Cardinals’ farm system somewhere between eighth and twelfth. That is an impressive rise from the 18-to-22 range they occupied at the start of the season. It is an exciting time to follow the Cardinals’ development system, which continues to show growth each year as the organization strives to return to the elite standard that once made it a perennial World Series contender.
