Cardinals 2025 MLB Draft Primer
Credit: Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images
The 2025 MLB Draft is just one day away, and the Cardinals are set to make their first top-five selection since taking J.D. Drew fifth overall out of Florida State in 1998. That pick turned out to be a home run for the organization, and now, 27 years later, they’ll be drafting from the same spot with hopes of landing another franchise cornerstone. St. Louis wasn’t originally slated to pick this high—they jumped from the 13th overall slot thanks to some good fortune in the MLB Draft Lottery. It also marks the first time in club history they’ll pick inside the top ten in consecutive years.
The 2024 MLB Draft is shaping up to be a phenomenal draft class already. Chase Burns, Nick Kurtz, Jac Caglianone, and Cam Smith have already made an impact at the MLB level. Konnor Griffin is blossoming into one of the top prospects in the game. JJ Wetherholt was recently called up to Triple-A and is currently boasting a 153 wRC+ with more walks than strikeouts on the season.
Strengths of the 2025 Draft Class
I wouldn't expect this year's first round to make that sort of immediate impact at the next level, but there's still an abundance of talent to pick from—even if there aren't any true blue-chip prospects. There are two clear strengths when I look at the top of this draft: prep shortstops and college pitchers. If you're picking inside the top 10, odds are your team will select from one of those demographics, and I feel confident in saying the Cardinals will be one of those teams.
While this may not be the strongest class overall, I think another key area of strength is the depth. There’s solid value to be had in Rounds 2-3, and I think it’ll be interesting to see how teams navigate allocating pool money to maximize the strengths of the class.
The Cardinals, who will be making a second round pick for the first time since 2022 (having forfeited their picks in 2023 and 2024 due to the Gray and Contreras signings), as well as a Competitive Balance Round B pick, will be making three selections between Rounds 2-3. They have some flexibility to get creative and maneuver the bonus pool in the early rounds—something that’s been difficult the past couple of years with only one pick in that range.
Two Names Unlikely to Fall
Before I dive into who I'd like to see the Cardinals target, I want to touch on two prospects who I don't foresee making it to pick five—despite the Cardinals seemingly coveting both.
SS/3B Ethan Holliday - Stillwater (OK)
Ethan Holliday, son of former Cardinals All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday, has been the presumptive top pick in the 2025 class for years. He’s got a silky smooth swing, an ultra-patient approach at the plate, and 70-grade power. He looks the part of a potential 30-HR bat at third base—someone who’s going to draw plenty of walks and play solid defense. Ethan didn’t have the strongest performance on the showcase circuit last summer, and there were glaring issues against velocity—specifically a whiff rate over 50% against fastballs 91 MPH and up. That being said, he made some noticeable swing changes in the spring. Though they have yet to be battle-tested against premium stuff, scouts seem bullish that he’ll hit enough to get to his plus power in-game. There’s certainly some risk in the profile, particularly with his hit tool and ability to handle velocity at the next level, but there’s no denying his raw talent.
LHP Kade Anderson - Louisiana State
There isn’t a safer starting pitcher in the 2025 class than LSU left-hander Kade Anderson. He simply checks off the most conventional scouting boxes you look for in a starting pitching prospect. First off, it’s a clean and easy operation on the mound—something you can’t say about some of the other top college arms in the class. He’s hands down one of the best strike-throwers in the class and shows elite feel for locating all four of his pitches. His arsenal is headlined by a 93–94 MPH fastball (T97) with 19 inches of carry, a reworked sweepy slider in the mid-80s, a depthy 79 MPH curveball, and a quality 83 MPH changeup. Anderson also has no issues holding his velocity deep into starts. In his seven scoreless innings against Dallas Baptist in the Baton Rouge Regional, Anderson recorded his highest velocity of the outing—a 96.1 MPH fastball—on his final pitch. It’s a relatively safe mid-rotation floor, with the potential for more if the velocity continues to tick up. Anderson led Division I baseball in both innings pitched and strikeouts in 2025.
Underslot?
Realistically speaking, I think this pick will come down to two players—a high school shortstop or a college pitcher. In the event that both of these aforementioned players, along with the two "unrealistic" options, are off the board, I think this could end up being a surprise underslot pick. Before I dive into the two most likely first round candidates, I’d like to discuss the scenario in which all four players are gone before the Cardinals' selection—even if that outcome isn’t particularly likely.
OF/C Ike Irish - Auburn
One name to watch if the draft doesn’t fall the way the Cardinals hope is Auburn catcher/outfielder Ike Irish. Why would the Cardinals take a catcher in the first round? Well, Irish primarily played right field this year, and scouts believe a corner outfield spot is where he fits best long term. He’s also widely regarded as the safest college bat in this year’s class. Irish posted a .364/.469/.710 slash line in the SEC while striking out just 14.3% of the time. He handles fastballs at the top of the zone and breaking balls well, which gives a level of comfort with how the profile will translate to the next level. He also held his own in the Cape Cod League last summer. There’s a bit more swing-and-miss inside the strike zone than you’d like, but Irish is also one of the most adjustable hitters in the class, with an elite 75.6% out-of-zone contact rate. The exit velos are strong all-around, but the launch distribution is not ideal for consistent home run power. What makes him an intriguing underslot selection is the fact that he didn’t submit medicals—allowing teams to sign him for less than 75% of the designated slot value for the pick.
RHP Kyson Witherspoon - Oklahoma
Another name that comes up in discussions if the Cardinals decide to go underslot is Oklahoma right-handed pitcher Kyson Witherspoon. Witherspoon saw his stock rise in 2025, as he showed a much-improved ability to control the zone—reducing his walk rate from an unhealthy 10.7% to 5.9% this season. He’s one of the hardest-throwing starting pitchers in the class, averaging a consistent 96 MPH on his heater and topping out at 99.3. The pitch generates above-average ride, with 19 inches of induced vertical break from a standard 5.9-foot vertical release height. Witherspoon also throws a slider and a cutter, though the two tend to blend together with similar shapes. There’s a bigger, downer curveball in the mix as well, which plays well from his over-the-top slot. For someone who throws a mid-to-high 90s fastball, there’s not as much swing-and-miss as you’d like to see. The secondary shapes are just okay right now, and I’d particularly like to see the cutter and slider become more distinct shapes in pro ball. Witherspoon has also flashed a changeup with minimal usage, and he’ll likely need to develop feel for a more functional one at the next level.
SS JoJo Parker - Purvis (MS)
Lastly, I'd like to touch on my preferred underslot candidate—and that's Mississippi prep shortstop JoJo Parker. Parker, bar none, has the best hit tool among the top-ranked high school shortstops in the class, and I think you could make an argument that it’s the best hit tool in the entire class. He ran an absurd 97.3% zone-contact rate during the summer showcase circuit, all while posting an impressive 25% hard-hit rate. Parker also brings a mature approach at the plate, chasing just 15.5% of the time. He’s close to maxed out physically and will turn 19 next month, but I’m bullish he’s going to hit at the next level—and that’s what I value most. Parker might not be as quick-twitch of an athlete as some of the other high school shortstops at the top of the class, and he’s likely to move off the position long term. Still, I think the bat will play plenty well at second or third base. The Cardinals organization is currently loaded with talent at those spots in the minor leagues, but whether it’s second, third, or even corner outfield, I think there will be enough positional utility for Parker to fit into long-term plans—if he hits the way I know he’s capable of.
I’ll be honest—if the Cardinals were to pick Ike Irish at 5, that would be a head-scratcher for me, even at a significant underslot deal. While I do think he’s one of the safer bats in this class, that’s not saying much, as this is one of the weaker college hitter classes in recent memory. There are too many warts in the offensive profile to justify taking a player likely limited to a corner outfield spot, where he won’t provide much, if any, defensive value. I’d be more open to Kyson Witherspoon, but if the Cardinals intend on drafting a college pitcher, I’d prefer someone with more swing-and-miss potential than Witherspoon. If none of the top three college lefties are available, I’d pivot to Arkansas right-hander Gage Wood—though that scenario almost certainly won’t play out on draft day.
The Two Favorites
When it’s all said and done, I think the Cardinals' decision will ultimately come down to two players: Oklahoma prep shortstop Eli Willits and Florida State left-hander Jamie Arnold. They represent the two key strengths of this year’s class—college pitching and prep shortstops. Both make sense in different ways, and each fits trends in the Cardinals’ recent draft history.
SS Eli Willits - Fort Cobb-Broxton (OK)
The name most frequently linked to the Cardinals at this stage is Oklahoma prep shortstop Eli Willits. Much like Ethan Holliday, Willits is the son of a former big leaguer—Reggie Willits. What sets him apart from the other top prep shortstops is that he’ll be just 17 years old on draft day and won’t turn 18 until December. Willits is a switch-hitter with a natural feel for spraying line drives. His bat-to-ball skills are above average—he posted an 87% contact rate on the circuit last summer—and he shows an advanced ability to handle both velocity and spin for his age. There isn’t much present bat speed, and his swing is geared toward spray-focused contact, so it’s hard to project much future power, even with physical development. Defensively, I think there’s at least a chance he sticks at shortstop or center field due to his natural instincts, but his athletic testing grades closer to good than plus. I’ve heard mixed reports on his arm strength—some note it as a weakness that might push him to second base, while others view it as a strength.
If the Cardinals are bullish on Willits’ ability to not only play shortstop or center field but play it at an above-average level, I would understand the rationale for the pick. Willits isn’t my preferred selection—I’d even lean toward JoJo Parker in this spot—but the Cardinals clearly have a type when it comes to high school bats. They’ve consistently prioritized age in the draft, favoring younger prep players with more developmental runway. Per Baseball America, the Cardinals have had the lowest median age among high school draftees since 2020.
Credit: JJ Cooper/Baseball America
What’s interesting, though, is that their younger prep picks typically come with significant power upside—guys like Joshua Baez, Jordan Walker, or Nolan Gorman fit that mold. Willits, by contrast, offers strong contact skills and defensive utility, but doesn’t project for much power. So while he fits the age profile the Cardinals tend to favor, he deviates from the power-hitting archetype they’ve historically targeted.
My 2025 Top Draft Target
The Cardinals have selected my top first round target each of the past three years—will they make it four in a row? The wait is finally over. The player I want the Cardinals to draft with their fifth overall pick in 2025 is none other than Jamie Arnold, left-handed pitcher out of Florida State. The last time the Cardinals picked fifth overall, they took another Florida State Seminole in J.D. Drew. It would be pretty neat if, 27 years later, they went back to that well and selected another standout from the same program. I’ve been thinking about this match ever since the Cardinals were awarded the fifth overall slot last December. I’ve talked about Arnold numerous times on social media and Birds on the Farm, and after all these months, he remains my top realistic pick for the Cardinals in the first round of the 2025 MLB Draft.
LHP Jamie Arnold - Florida State
Arnold is a low-launch, 6-foot-1 southpaw who’s an elite extender down the mound, averaging 6.5 feet of extension while delivering the ball from a low 4.7-foot vertical release. It’s a long, whippy arm action from a deceptive low slot that makes him tough to square up. The Cardinals have put an emphasis on drafting shorter, low-launch pitchers with flat approach angles—and Jamie Arnold very much fits the bill. Arnold’s calling card is an 85 MPH sweeper with 11.6 inches of glove-side movement, which netted a hellacious 46.3% whiff rate this year while holding opposing hitters to a .216 wOBA.
His fastball sits in the 93–94 MPH range and tops out at 98, with two shapes that often blend together. The fastball backed up a bit in 2025 from a performance standpoint, but nothing in the shape or location data suggests any major red flags. He’ll almost certainly add a hard cutter in pro ball—something the Cardinals have emphasized with their east-west pitchers—and I’d imagine that could help the fastball play better. He also debuted a bonkers kick-change in 2025, averaging -4.5 inches of induced vertical break. Though he struggled with locating it, the pitch showed flashes of utter dominance when he used it sparingly. Developing better feel for locating it near the zone will be key for it to become a reliable weapon against more advanced hitters.
Arnold is a match made in heaven for the Cardinals organization—a low-launch lefty who commands the zone well and has been a consistent producer throughout his collegiate career. I’ll be overjoyed if he's the Cardinals’ first round pick on Sunday.
