26 Cardinals Prospect Storylines to Watch in 2026: Part 1

Feb 11

With a new year upon us, I want to continue looking ahead to what is a pivotal season for the Cardinals organization as a whole. Chaim Bloom officially took over for John Mozeliak in October after the Cardinals missed the playoffs for the third straight year, and he immediately began laying out his vision for the future — an emphasis on development and prioritizing young players getting opportunities at the MLB level. With that being said, let’s dive into 26 storylines to follow in 2026.

1. How will the Cardinals continue to execute their plan of looking toward the future?

While we can probably look back at the 2025 trade deadline as the start of the Chaim Bloom era, I’ll officially say it began in November with the trade of the Cardinals’ top starting pitcher, Sonny Gray, to the Boston Red Sox for two pitchers: Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke. Fitts already has partial MLB experience and is expected to fit directly into the major league club’s plans, either as a starter or long reliever. Clarke was the Red Sox’s No. 5 prospect and slotted in as the Cardinals’ No. 7 prospect. He features an upper-90s fastball with one of the best sliders in the minors from the left side.

Then in December, Bloom continued adding toward the future with the selection of Matt Pushard in the Rule 5 draft. Pushard has the stuff to be a solid middle-relief option with the potential to carve out a backend bullpen role. Right before Christmas, Bloom once again linked up with the Red Sox, trading Wilson Contreras for three pitchers: Hunter Dobbins, Blake Aita, and Yhoiker Fajardo. Dobbins has MLB experience and is expected to be a rotation option. Aita and Fajardo both pitched in A-ball, with Fajardo ranking as the No. 9 prospect in the Cardinals system and Aita sitting just outside the top 30, according to MLB Pipeline.

The final trades of the offseason included Nolan Arenado, who was dealt for Jack Martinez, a 2025 eighth-round pick out of Arizona State. The biggest news came on February 2nd, when the Cardinals traded Brendan Donovan to the Mariners, acquiring five players, including top-100 switch pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, outfielders Tai Peete and Colton Ledbetter, and two Comp-B picks for the 2026 draft. That capped off an active offseason for a club that seems full steam ahead on the rebuild.

2. Who will debut this year?

Last year was defined by what the organization called the year of the “Runway.” This season is shaping up to be the season of the debut, as top Cardinals prospects such as JJ Wetherholt, Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, Joshua Baez, Ixan Henderson, and Brycen Mautz will likely be at the Triple-A or MLB level to start the season.

Only five players made their MLB debuts in 2025, but I’d expect 2026 to feature significantly more than five debuts as the Cardinals enter the first serious year of what looks like a multi-year rebuild. That doesn’t even include older players such as Matt Pushard and Bryan Torres, both of whom I expect to make their MLB debuts after working through the minor leagues for years.

3. Who wins a rotation spot out of spring?

One of the biggest storylines entering spring training will be who makes the starting rotation out of camp. Right now, three players appear to have locked down spots: Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, and Michael McGreevy. That leaves two spots for what I count as at least four contenders, and it could be as many as seven.

Hunter Dobbins, Kyle Leahy, Andre Pallante, and Richard Fitts will likely be the main contenders for those two spots, with Quinn Mathews and Gordon Graceffo as potential long shots if they have tremendous springs. This situation could become more complicated if the Cardinals bring in another veteran to eat innings. I also wouldn’t rule out a six-man rotation if more than two of those pitchers emerge as strong options the organization wants to evaluate as starters.

4. Who fills out the infield now that Arenado and Donovan are gone?

The first two months of 2026 were busy for Chaim Bloom, as he shipped away both Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan for a combined six prospects. With that, competition will likely ensue at both second and third base.

Nolan Gorman and JJ Wetherholt seem to be the favorites to land those two positions out of spring training, but Thomas Saggese could certainly be in the conversation with a strong spring. Bryan Torres, Jose Fermin, and Cesar Prieto are long shots, but if injuries occur, one of them could emerge as an option. Bloom hasn’t ruled out acquiring a right-handed bat, though that seems more likely to be an outfield addition than an infield one.

5. Do the Cardinals have another plus bat emerge to complement Herrera and Burleson?

There are really only two bats I feel confident projecting as well above average in 2026: Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson. Behind them, it’s a mix of promise and unproven talent.

The most likely candidate to emerge is Lars Nootbaar, who had the first down season of his career, posting a 95 OPS+, well below his career norms. Assuming the heel injury is behind him following surgery, it feels safe to project a bounce-back into the 110-120 range where he has typically performed. After that, your guess is as good as mine. JJ Wetherholt has a chance to be above average if his Triple-A underlying metrics translate. Nolan Gorman and Masyn Winn have shown flashes but didn’t put it together in 2025, and Jordan Walker remains at a crossroads as he continues to struggle.

If no one else emerges, this could be a historically bad Cardinals offense — especially now that Donovan is gone.

6. Can Joshua Baez replicate his 2025 season?

Joshua Baez had one of the most impressive seasons of any prospect in baseball, breaking out for 20 home runs and 54 stolen bases with a 145 wRC+ between Peoria and Springfield. All of those marks were well above his previous career averages, as he had struggled through his first four seasons in the system, primarily due to swing-and-miss issues.

The question is whether the breakout was legit or if past tendencies will resurface at Triple-A. I believe Baez made massive progress in 2025. It was almost unimaginable last January that he would be on the 40-man roster at this point, but he is. We’ll see in 2026 if he can solidify himself as a true top-75 prospect.

7. How fast will Liam Doyle rise through the system?

Liam Doyle was drafted by the Cardinals in the first round of the 2025 draft. After a full season at Tennessee, where he was one of the best pitchers in the country, the Cardinals gave him a brief taste of affiliated ball with starts at Palm Beach and Springfield. He performed well, posting a 2.45 ERA in 3.2 innings.

Where Doyle begins 2026 remains a question. I could easily see them starting him in Peoria, even though he finished the year in Springfield, mainly because of how deliberate this new development group appears to be. How quickly he moves will depend not only on performance but on the development of his secondary offerings. I don’t see any reason to rush him and would expect a 2027 debut.

8. Can Rainiel Rodriguez emerge as a top-20 prospect in baseball?

If you ask me who had the best year in the system, my answer is Rainiel Rodriguez, which is why I selected him as my Player of the Year. The 18-year-old tied Joshua Baez for the most home runs in the system while climbing from the FCL to High-A.

He led the system in ISO at .279, more than 20 points higher than second-place Sebastian Dos Santos at .253. His 162 wRC+ also led the system, just ahead of Dos Santos. Given his age, there’s a legitimate argument that Rodriguez is the No. 1 prospect in the Cardinals system. Players with this type of profile don’t come around often, and I’m excited to see how he progresses in 2026.

9. How will the catching situation shake out?

The Cardinals have an interesting catching situation after announcing that Ivan Herrera will prepare to return behind the plate in 2026. The club now has five catchers on the 40-man roster, including four with MLB experience: Herrera, Pedro Pages, Jimmy Crooks, and Yohel Pozo. Leonardo Bernal is expected to start the season at Triple-A and likely won’t factor in early.

Pozo is on a two-way deal, which suggests he may serve as depth in Triple-A. That leaves Herrera, Crooks, and Pages. I could see all three making the team out of spring training. Crooks and Pages may handle the bulk of the catching duties, while Herrera fills in periodically between catcher, DH, and potential outfield appearances.

10. Who’s the surprise player that makes the roster out of spring?

Every year, someone unexpected makes the Opening Day roster. In 2025, it wasn’t a surprise player but a surprise role, as Matthew Liberatore made the team as a starter. In 2024, Victor Scott made the roster without Triple-A experience. In 2023, Jordan Walker and Taylor Motter earned spots after strong springs.

With the Cardinals in a rebuild, the Opening Day roster feels even more open than in previous years. I wouldn’t be surprised if multiple unexpected players make it. Early names to watch include Bryan Torres, Noah Mendlinger, Scott Blewett, Jared Shuster, Luis Gastelum, and Gerson Moreno.

11. How does the new development staff perform as it nears completion?

A couple of months ago, I wrote about Fangraphs ranking the Cardinals as the No. 1 farm system in baseball. While they may not universally hold that spot, they made massive gains — especially on the pitching side under Matt Pierpont. In one season, the organization went from one of the worst pitching systems in baseball to nearly top 10, one of the largest year-over-year improvements in the league.

The Cardinals have continued expanding their development staff, adding more than 10 new members this offseason as they push toward the cutting edge of player development. Last year was about getting to know the system, and they made significant progress despite a late start. I’m excited to see what they do with a full offseason. Notable hires include Hugh Quattlebaum as hitting coordinator and Dalton Hurd as director of hitting.

12. How do the injured pitchers return and perform?

The Cardinals’ minor leagues were hit hard by injuries in 2025, with Cooper Hjerpe, Brian Holiday, Sem Robberse, and Tekoah Roby all undergoing elbow surgery. On the MLB side, Hunter Dobbins is recovering from an ACL tear, and Richard Fitts dealt with nerve issues that sidelined him.

Both of the MLB options are healthy and should factor into the Cardinals' plans as soon as spring training. On the minor league side, Hjerpe, Robberse, and Holiday are expected to return at various points during 2026, though their timelines and roles remain uncertain. Other pitchers who dealt with minor injuries, such as Tink Hence, Hancel Rincon, and Chen-Wei Lin, are expected to be ready for spring and will look to build up innings.

13. Is this the strongest DSL class to come stateside in years?

I’ve only been following the DSL closely for a couple of years, so there may have been strong classes recently that I missed, but this year’s group looks impressive. It’s led by infielder Sebastian Dos Santos, one of the best offensive producers in the system, finishing second in wRC+ and OBP.

Other position players likely to come stateside include Miguel Hernandez, Juan Rujano, Kenly Hunter, Royelny Strop, and Edward Guribe. On the pitching side, Branneli Franco, with his 95+ mph fastball, should make his way stateside after being one of the top signings in the 2024 class, along with Jesus Garcia, who posted a 2.78 ERA, a 4.00 K/BB ratio, and a .181 batting average against.

Tyler Gettinger