#4 - RHP Tink Hence
Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 65 | Command: 55 | Overall: 50
Background:
The Cardinals have taken an extremely conservative developmental path with Hence since drafting him out of high school in 2020. The athletic right-hander flashed impressive results in 2024 when healthy, but injuries and mechanical inconsistencies add some concern to the overall profile. The talent remains undeniable, but 2025 will be a pivotal year in showing he can handle the durability required to stick as a starter at the next level.
Scouting Report:
Hence battled through a frustrating 2024 season, dealing with back and lat discomfort, which almost certainly played a role in his ability to recover from outing to outing. There were clear inconsistencies in how he held velocity and repeated his delivery—especially as he stretched out deeper into starts. Fatigue became noticeable late in outings, where his mechanics would begin to drift, raising some questions about his long-term viability as a starter.
His fastball took a step back last season as a result of those fluctuations. When sitting consistently at 96–97 mph, it can play as a plus pitch—but in 2024, he averaged closer to 94 mph, and there were stretches where he dipped into the low 90s. The diminished velocity made the pitch more hittable, especially when paired with a more generic release profile.
The changeup remains his best weapon—an elite offering that generates huge whiff rates with excellent arm-speed deception. He throws it confidently to both lefties and righties and can land it in the zone or bury it for chase.
His curveball also made strides in 2024, particularly late in the year, stepping up when he didn’t have his best stuff. The pitch is now harder than the version he showed earlier in his career, with a tighter shape and less downward tilt. His slider also made a notable jump, transitioning from a two-plane breaking ball to a firmer, more gyro-oriented shape. It now profiles as a legitimate third weapon, particularly against right-handed hitters, giving him a more platoon-neutral mix.
Hence has always relied on elite athleticism to create uncomfortable angles and unique release traits, but early spring data shows that’s trending in the wrong direction. His extension is significantly down from his 2022 FSL data, and his vertical release height is up. That change has led to his fastball characteristics becoming less unique and stripped away his flat approach angle. If those release characteristics hold, he’ll need to lean even more heavily on his secondaries, as his fastball now looks average at best.
Future:
If Hence can return to form physically—holding velocity and bouncing back consistently between starts—he still projects as a big-league starter with the command and pitch mix to slot into a mid-rotation role. But if his durability remains an issue and the release profile continues to trend downward, there’s a realistic chance he ends up in a bullpen role, where his stuff could still play at a high level in shorter bursts.
