#14 - RHP Gordon Graceffo
Scouting grades: Fastball: 45 | Slider: 50 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Command: 50 | Overall: 40+
Background:
The Cardinals selected Gordon Graceffo in the fifth round of the 2021 MLB Draft out of Villanova, where he had a tremendous junior season—posting a 1.54 ERA over 82 innings, with 86 strikeouts and just 13 walks. Shortly after entering pro ball, Graceffo underwent a noticeable transformation. A velocity bump in 2022 turned him from a pitchability right-hander into a potential fast-rising mid-rotation arm. That year, he dominated at both High-A and Double-A, showing improved stuff and maintaining his strike-throwing. However, that momentum was derailed in 2023 and 2024, as Graceffo struggled with inconsistent velocity and diminished effectiveness in Triple-A.
Scouting Report:
Graceffo works with a four-pitch mix headlined by a fastball that, in its current form, grades out as a below-average offering. After sitting 94–96 mph for stretches in 2022, the pitch dipped to the 91–94 mph range for most of 2024, occasionally touching 95 but lacking consistent carry through the zone. He throws from an over-the-top slot, but the fastball shape doesn’t do much to help it play up—it gets around 15 inches of induced vertical break, but without outlier ride or deception.
Despite this, Graceffo relied on the pitch nearly 50% of the time in 2024, living near the heart of the plate. Even if the velocity returns closer to his 2022 peak, it’s unlikely to ever be more than an fringe-average offering. For Graceffo to succeed, he’ll need to reduce his reliance on the heater and lean more heavily on his secondaries, which are for more impressive pitches in a vacuum.
Among those secondaries, Graceffo’s 12-6 curveball is a tight breaker that sits around 80 mph with above-average spin rates. The curveball sees similar usage against both right and left-handed hitters and serves as his most reliable out pitch in two-strike counts.
He also throws a shorter, bullet-shaped slider at around 85 mph that has 3 inches of induced vertical break and 3 and 3.4 inches of glove-side movement. The pitch was more effective when his fastball had better life—currently, its effectiveness is somewhat diminished due to the lack of an overpowering heater. Still, he locates the slider well, and it can flash as an average or slightly better offering when sequenced correctly.
Rounding out his repertoire is a changeup that sits around 84 mph with moderate fade and limited vertical separation from his fastball. Graceffo uses the changeup almost exclusively against left-handed hitters, and while his feel for the pitch is inconsistent, it did work as the best weak-contact option in his mix. The pitch shows around 7 inches of horizontal separation from his fastball and pairs decently with his high release, though it would benefit from more depth and feel. Still, the fact that all three of his secondaries are functional gives him a more complete look than many fringe starters at the upper levels.
Graceffo’s control has regressed a bit but remains solid. He can still locate in the zone when needed, but the margin for error has tightened with the velocity dip. When he misses in the zone now, he’s far more hittable than he was during his breakout 2022 campaign. The stuff simply doesn’t overpower hitters anymore, and without a true bat-missing pitch in the arsenal, he has to be nearly perfect with location and sequencing to be an effective starter.
Future:
2025 will be a pivotal year in determining Graceffo’s long-term role. If he can regain a few ticks of fastball velocity and cut down on his usage of the pitch in favor of more consistent secondaries, there’s still a path to a viable back-end rotation role. If the velocity and fastball effectiveness continue to be hurdles in a starting role, he may ultimately find more success in the bullpen. Graceffo has flirted with triple digits before, and in a full-effort relief role, the velocity should see a considerable uptick. He also has the bulldog demeanor that could fit well in a high-leverage bullpen role.
