Is Ryan Helsley Broken… or Can He Be Fixed?
Credit: (William Purnell/Imagn Images)
Fast Decline
The sudden decline of Ryan Helsley is both confusing and concerning for many fans. What makes it worse is how the fan base is reacting. Many were upset that Helsley was not traded during the offseason and for good reason. Fans thought he would receive a good return of youthful prospects, since that was the new direction the Cardinals were headed in. He reached another level last season, recording a career-high 49 saves in 54 opportunities. Even more impressive are the low ERAs Helsley posted from 2022 to 2024: 1.25 in 2022, 2.45 in 2023, and 2.04 in 2024.
However, this season, Helsley has experienced a significant drop in nearly every statistical category. In 2024, he has blown 5 saves (tied for his career worst) in just 18 save opportunities, along with a 3.75 ERA. Clearly, something isn’t clicking, so I decided to dig into the numbers to see what might be behind Helsley’s rapid decline.
What is the Issue?
The first question most people probably ask is, “Is this a velocity issue?” The answer to that is no. In 2024, Helsley’s average velocities are very similar to what they are this year. His average fastball velocity this year is 99.1 mph, compared to 99.6 mph in 2024. His slider averages 89.0 mph, compared to 89.2 mph in 2024. His curveball averaged 81.2 mph in 2024, compared to 80.0 mph this year. If there were any concerns about velocity, I don’t think that is the problem. There’s only a slight difference in the numbers.
What caught my attention was the decline in his whiff rate, which seemed odd considering there hasn't been a major drop in average velocity. So, I decided to look at the shape of each pitch to see if there were any significant differences in movement and break. While the induced vertical break on all of Helsley’s pitches has remained consistent, I noticed something else — his pitches now have less horizontal movement compared to previous years.
For example, his fastball averaged 3.5 inches of arm-side movement in 2023 and 3.4 inches in 2024. This year, however, it has dropped to just 2.0 inches, a loss of 1.5 inches in horizontal movement. That’s a notable change.
Next, I looked at his slider, since it's one of his primary pitches along with the fastball. In 2023, his slider averaged 4.7 inches of glove-side movement. In 2024, it dropped slightly to 4.2 inches, and in 2025, it’s down to 3.9 inches. While the drop from 2024 to 2025 isn’t huge, it's still nearly a full inch less than in 2023, which could be significant.
The same trend appears in his curveball. Like the slider, it has experienced a steady decrease in horizontal break year over year. Compared to 2023, his curveball has lost about 1 inch of horizontal movement.
Why Would this be Occurring?
You’re probably asking yourself, “What’s causing this decrease in horizontal movement?” The answer is simple and it's something my brother ran into as well. Helsley’s arm angle has shifted to a higher release point. Arm angle plays a crucial role in how a pitch moves, though its impact can vary from pitcher to pitcher.
What’s surprising is how even a slight change in arm angle can throw off a pitcher’s entire repertoire. Case in point: Helsley’s arm angle was 58 degrees in 2023, increased to 60 degrees in 2024, and has risen again to 63 degrees in 2025. This means that Helsley’s release point is higher in 2025 which could be correlating to the decrease in horizontal break and location issues.
I’m curious to see if the Cardinals will try adjusting his arm angle slightly lower to see if it leads to better results. Only time will tell.
