Cardinals First Round Pick Preview and Prediction (#5 Overall)
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We’ve arrived at the pick that has the entire Cardinals community buzzing—pick number five. This is St. Louis’ first top-5 selection since 1998, when they took Florida State outfielder J.D. Drew. It’s an interesting year to be picking this high, as the elite college bats that usually populate the top of the draft (aside from Arquette) haven’t emerged as expected. That’s forced teams like the Cardinals to consider riskier demographics—either a college pitcher or a high school bat.
Adding to the intrigue is the Cardinals’ new player development staff and the influence of future President of Baseball Operations, Chaim Bloom. His presence could signal a shift in draft strategy, making this one of the most fascinating Cardinals drafts in recent memory.
There are about 11 players I could see the Cardinals realistically targeting at No. 5. I’ve split them into four tiers based on the likelihood of St. Louis selecting them.
Tier 1- Likely picked before #5
LHP Kade Anderson (LSU)
Anderson has separated himself as the consensus top pitcher in this class and is widely expected to go in the top two. The draft-eligible sophomore posted a 3.18 ERA over 119 innings with 180 strikeouts—most in Division I—including a complete-game shutout with 10 Ks in the CWS finals. He features four plus pitches: fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. While the fastball and changeup are solid, the improved breaking stuff has vaulted him to the college arm in the class. He’s a near lock to go No. 1 to the Nationals, with the Angels and Mariners representing his realistic floor. I’d put his chances of falling to the Cardinals at under 1%. If he does, it’s a slam-dunk selection.
SS/3B Ethan Holliday (Stillwater HS, Oklahoma)
Ranked No. 1 by MLB Pipeline, Ethan Holliday carries elite baseball pedigree as the son of former Cardinals star Matt Holliday and brother to Jackson Holliday, the Orioles’ second baseman and a former No. 1 pick. But this isn’t just a legacy case—Ethan has the best raw power in the prep class, a patient approach at the dish, and potentially above-average defense at third base. Concerns in the summer circuit about his swing-and-miss and defensive consistency slightly cooled the hype, but he remains in play at No. 1. The Rockies at No. 4 appear to be his floor. I’d give it a 2% chance he’s still on the board at 5.
LHP Liam Doyle (Tennessee)
Doyle had an outstanding season for the Vols: a 3.20 ERA over 95.2 innings with 164 strikeouts, leading D1 in K/9 at 15.4. His fastball—arguably the best in the draft—generates almost 20 inches of vertical ride and 40% whiff rates. He uses it over 60% of the time, and while the secondary stuff is still rounding out, the cutter and splitter have both shown plus potential. If those pitches develop, Doyle has true ace upside. The Angels are frequently connected to him, and if Anderson goes first, Doyle likely goes second. If not, the Rockies or Mariners could be his landing spots. I’d estimate about a 10% chance he falls to St. Louis.
Tier 2- Favorites
LHP Jamie Arnold (Florida State)
Arnold came into the season as the top-ranked college pitcher and has mostly held that spot—though he’s now likely the third of the big three lefties to come off the board. He posted a 2.98 ERA this season (matching his 2024 mark) over 84.2 innings with 119 strikeouts, both down from last year. His fastball, sitting 93–94 mph and touching 97, plays well from his arm slot. But his calling card is his plus-plus slider, generating a 45% whiff rate and ranking among the best in the class. The changeup flashes promise, though command remains inconsistent. Adding a cutter—something the Cardinals have emphasized recently—could complete the profile. Arnold is widely mocked to the Cardinals and seems to be a 50/50 bet to be available at No. 5.
SS Eli Willits (Fort Cobb-Broxton HS, Oklahoma)
Willits is emerging as the consensus second prep bat behind Holliday. A 2026 reclass, he’ll be just 17 years and 7 months old on draft day, making him the youngest player in this class. A switch-hitter with slightly more polish from the left side, Willits has an advanced approach and doesn't chase breaking balls—rare for his age. He boasts plus speed, projects as a 20+ stolen base threat, and already plays above-average defense at short. He could also move to center field. Power is average for now, but he has physical projection to grow into a 20/20 player. His floor looks like Nico Hoerner, and his ceiling could resemble Trea Turner’s speed and impact. I estimate a 60% chance he’s available at No. 5.
Tier 3- In the conversation
SS Aiva Arquette (Oregon State)
Arquette was the only college bat to emerge from a down year for college hitters. He slashed .354/.461/.654 with 19 homers and a 1.115 OPS, solidifying himself as the top college bat on the board. While there hasn’t been much connection between Arquette and the Cardinals, the need for power in the farm system could make this an appealing fit. Arquette brings a power-first offensive profile and could be a fast riser. The Angels and Mariners are possibilities ahead of No. 5, so I’d say there’s a 50% shot he’s still available.
SS Billy Carlson (Corona HS, California)
Carlson is the best defensive shortstop in the high school class and maybe the entire draft. He draws comps to Masyn Winn for his arm and glove and is expected to compete for Gold Gloves. Offensively, Carlson offers a line-drive right-handed swing with slightly more pop than Willits, though he trails in pure hitting ability and speed. The main knock is his age—he’ll be nearly 19 on draft day—which could cause a few teams to pass. I’d put his availability at 75%.
OF/C Ike Irish (Auburn)
Irish’s bat—a solid hit/power combo—doesn’t scream top-five, but he becomes intriguing in a cost-saving scenario. He skipped the MLB Combine and withheld medicals, meaning teams aren’t required to pay him 75% of slot. The Cardinals, with four top-100 picks, could take him and reallocate savings. This kind of maneuver is rare, though the Angels and Cardinals have been rumored to consider it. I’d say he’s 90% likely to be available at 5.
SS JoJo Parker (Purvis HS, Mississippi)
Parker separated from his twin brother Joseph on draft boards thanks to a strong circuit showing. He had a contact rate above 90% and a hard-hit rate north of 20%, making him one of the top prep bats in terms of hit/power blend. He’s likely to move off short, but could be above average at third or in the outfield. His advanced offensive profile could appeal to the Cardinals, who value contact bats with power potential. Like Carlson, his near-19 age could scare teams. I’d peg the odds of him being available at No. 5 at 90%.
Tier 4- Longshots
RHP Seth Hernandez (Corona HS, California)
If this were purely about talent, Hernandez might go top 3. He arguably has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the class with a fastball, curveball, and changeup all flashing plus-plus potential. But high school pitchers are the riskiest demographic and require the most development—see Tink Hence, who’s still in Double-A four years post-draft. Hernandez is a longshot for the Cardinals, but if they want to swing for upside, he’s a fascinating gamble. The Mariners are the only team above St. Louis strongly linked. I’d say there’s an 80% chance he’s available.
RHP Kyson Witherspoon (Oklahoma)
Witherspoon ranks just below the trio of top lefties. He has three solid pitches: a mid-90s fastball (touching 99), a high-80s slider, and a cutter that may be his best offering. He’ll need to refine his changeup to round out the mix. While he lacks the elite ceiling of others, he has a reliable starter profile. If the top arms are off the board, he could be a safe fallback. I’d put the odds of him being available at 95%.
Final Prediction
My final prediction is that the Cardinals will select Jamie Arnold with the 5th pick in the 2025 draft.
Tyler’s mini mock:
Nationals: LHP Kade Anderson
Angels: LHP Liam Doyle
Mariners: SS Aiva Arquette
Rockies: SS/3B Ethan Holliday
Cardinals: LHP Jamie Arnold
