2025 MLB Draft Chat #1
Tennessee pitcher Liam Doyle (12) pitches during a NCAA baseball game between Tennessee and Kentucky at Lindsey Nelson Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on April 18, 2025.
© Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments—I’ll update this article with my responses to each one. Thanks!
Question #1 (ALyons): Do you think Doyle's chance to end up a Bullpen arm is concerning?
Before I answer this question, I want to lay out why people think Doyle has reliever risk.
First off, when you watch him pitch, it's a very high-effort delivery that looks unconventional for a starting pitcher. While I do agree there’s effort in the delivery, as long as he consistently repeats his mechanics and maintains velocity, I don’t have an issue with it.
This leads to the second cause for concern: his inability to hold velocity deep into starts.
Here are Doyle's fastball velocities (MPH) from pitch 0-50 → 50-75 → 75-100 across each month of the season:
February: 95.6 → 93.8 → 93.2
March: 96.5 → 95.4 → 94.3
April: 96.6 → 95.3 → 94.8
May: 96.6 → 96.9 → 97.1
Early in the season, that velocity drop was definitely a concern—especially considering how much Doyle leans on the heater. But the gap has narrowed as the season’s gone on. I don’t think it’s fair to completely disregard the early season data, but it’s certainly encouraging, especially when paired with the strides he’s made with his secondaries.
Lastly, I want to touch on Doyle’s overreliance on his fastball. Much like his improvements in holding velocity, he’s also shown real progress in his feel for secondaries as the season’s unfolded. Over his first five starts, Doyle relied on the fastball a whopping 75% of the time. In his 11 starts since then, that number has dropped to a much more respectable 59.2%.
While the fastball still gets all the spotlight, I don’t think he’s lacking in pure secondary stuff. His splitter is his best secondary, with a 42.3% whiff rate and a .147 xwOBA against this year. Doyle plays his high-carry fastball off it well, working on a north-south plane with an elite IVB difference—close to 18 inches. While splitters are generally tough to command, Doyle’s competitive locations have been solid. He also ranks near the top in both zone% and strike% on the pitch.
He also throws an 88 MPH cutter that’s started to see more usage, and it’s performed really well this season.
On top of that, he mixes in an 82 MPH sweeper with about 10 inches of horizontal break. It’s his weakest pitch, sure, but still usable—especially against same-handed hitters.
While I still think there are valid reasons to tag Doyle with the highest "reliever risk" among the top college arms in this year’s draft, I also think some of the criticisms have been a bit overblown. Between the heavy fastball usage and early-season velo concerns, there were definitely some red flags, but I think he’s done a lot to put those to rest with how he’s finishing his 2025 season.
Question #2 (Seth-Gufeball): Who do you see as the most likely pitcher for the Cardinals to draft first?
There are two pitchers who stand out to me above the rest as the best "fits" for how the Cardinals organization tends to operate.
First off, Kade Anderson is a match made in heaven. Anderson is a mechanically sound, projectable lefty who's probably the most consistent strike-thrower in the entire class. It’s not like he’s lacking in high-end stuff either—he has quality spin traits and throws an explosive 93 MPH fastball with 20 inches of induced vertical break and whiff rates right up there with Liam Doyle.
Among the top pitching prospects in this year’s draft, Anderson checks off the most boxes in terms of traits you look for. What makes him such a great fit is his present feel for a variety of pitches, combined with advanced command and control. The Cardinals targeted a number of pitchers in last year's draft with solid fastball shape but room to add velocity, and I think Anderson is a prime candidate to throw harder with pro development. He’s still just 20 years old, doesn’t have a ton of mileage on his arm, and has a slender frame that looks like it can support more strength.
Based on previous draft trends, I also think Jamie Arnold would make sense at 5th overall. As we get closer to the draft, the chances of Arnold being there at 5 seem to be increasing. While he’s had a solid season for Florida State, he hasn’t quite made the junior-year jump that many scouts and analysts were hoping for.
His fastball has backed up in terms of results, and the development of a viable third pitch hasn’t really materialized. That said, I think he could still be in play for the Cardinals because of their affinity for low-launch pitchers. They’re not the same, but I do wonder how much the organization is weighing their experience with Cooper Hjerpe when evaluating Arnold.
Question #3 (John): If you could pick someone who’d be there in Rd 3 who would it be?
The Cardinals hold the 89th overall selection with their 3rd-round pick. I'm not entirely sure who’ll be available for them in the 3rd round, but I’ll throw out a couple names in the 80–120 range on Baseball America’s updated big board.
First off, Kordyn Dickerson stands out to me as someone who could be a great value in the 3rd round. Dickerson burst onto the scene this year for Indiana, slashing .314/.381/.632 while playing plus defense in center field. He’s tooled up with impressive raw power, posting a 90th percentile exit velocity close to 110 MPH, and he’s done a great job optimizing that loud contact in the air. He pairs that thunderous power with above-average speed, which helps him cover a ton of ground in center—where he projects to stick.
The biggest knock on his profile is some swing-and-miss against breaking stuff, plus a lack of track record, with this being his first full season as a starter. That said, I think the upside with an up-the-middle player who brings this kind of power potential is well worth the risk—especially in this range.
Another name to keep an eye on here is Jared Spencer. Off pure talent alone, I think he’s an early 2nd-round guy. He recently underwent shoulder surgery, which is obviously scary, but I think the arm talent is worth betting on. He’s a lefty who sits around 95 MPH with a decent movement profile, but what separates him is his dynamite bullet slider. It’s a harder pitch—88 MPH—with 2.2" IVB and just 0.4" of HB, and he’s got an impeccable feel for using it against both lefties and righties. The whiff rates are bonkers—upwards of 50%, ranking near the top in Division I.
There are some knocks on his mechanics and strike-throwing consistency, which have led to some "reliever risk" tags. But I think he throws enough strikes, and he doesn’t have any issue holding velocity. What gets me excited about Jared Spencer is that the pure stuff is loud, and at the very least, he looks like someone who could profile in the back of a bullpen.
